In a recent posting by Stephen Cecchetti (Prof. of International Economics and Finance at Brandeis and Research Associate at the US National Bureau of Economic Research) on the comment page of the Financial Times (Tuesday March 22nd), Prof. Cecchetti suggested that rates should rise faster based on what he calls the “neutral policy rate”. “The neutral policy rate”, Cecchetti writes, ” is the sum of the US federal funds rate target and the inflation objective of the monetary policy makers”. He suggests a figure somewhere in the neighborhood of 4% for the fed funds rate…just enough to discourage inflation but not enough to stunt the growth of the US economy. I would tend to agree with him if we look at the yields on the medium & core fixed income markets (US dollar). Right now the 10 year Treasury is yielding around 4.5%, hardly enough to encourage more than a nominal flow into the US dollar. Whether it means that the 10 year target for treasuries should be in the 5.75-6.00% area, I don’t know. I do believe that the longer we wait to encourage more savings domestically, the more risk we impose on our national balance sheet. So maybe Professor Cecchetti has a point - the faster we raise the rates the more likely we will see some benefit to the US. Is this what Chairman Greenspan was hinting in his comments earlier this week?

I’m sure everybody wonders “Where are they now?” when they watch actors on old television shows. Look carefully and you may find the answers.

I’ve been watch “Saved by the Bell” every morning when I get up. I’m sure everybody knows the show and watched it growing up (if you were a child of the late 80’s/early 90’s). Some of those stars are still in television and movies now. However, does anyone remember the early seasons where only Zach, Screech, Lisa, and Mr Belding were in junior high. It was actually called “Good Morning Miss Bliss” after the lead character was played by Haley Mills. It was a completely different show and even though it had those four memorable characters that we know and love, it had a few that never went on to the “Saved by the Bell” series. There was one character that I liked and thought was cute. I decided to look at IMDB to see what her name was and see if she did anything after that first show. Low and behold I found out she is still acting but in some low budget movies like Elvira! I only found one current picture of her but she was pretty cute.

I’ve been trying to think of other old television shows that I grew up and and trying to see what those actors are doing now. Just today, I read in the news that Tracey Gold (Growing Pains) was put on probation for a DUI last year! Remember the kid in “The Toy”? Apparently he was in a porn! I heard Keysha Knight Pullam (Tudy from the Cosby’s) went to UVA! We all know about the Olsen Twins from “Full House” but I wonder what happened to the middle girl went to?

Endless possibilities of the internet!

A combination of events (demand from Asia, slow down in investing in new production and, of course, Iraq et al) seems ready to raise the cost of a barrel of oil in the US to $75 or higher. However, this time the US gets the prize for having to pay for it more dearly than others. Since oil is priced in US$s, those in non-dollar countries are not as susceptible to the rise. At the current rate of US$ 55/barrell, the Euro Zone is paying approximately E 41. Depending on what happens with the US budget, trade and current account deficit, we could see the US paying significantly more per barrel later this year. Maybe $100/brl?? Hopefully, the US administration will be more successful in sharing the burden of high oil costs than they have been with the burden of a badly managed attempt at regime change and nation building.

Sinner or Saint? I can’t decide!

I know everybody has at one point said to themselves, “I must be the only sane person in this world and everybody is crazy!” I think that’s my problem though. I must the only crazy person among the sane! Why you ask? I wonder too.

Let’s see. These last few weeks, some odd family news. I have a cousin named Kim. She is 18 but has the mindset of a 9 year old. I’m serious too. She just had a baby last week! The father, who I don’t know, is apparently mentally retarded too. Inconcievable!

Just two weeks ago, I found out that another cousin of mine, Matt who is 18, got his girlfriend pregnant. This is his first girlfriend too! Some say she manipulated him to get her pregnant so he would marry her. They’ve only been dating since late last year!

Matt’s sister, Christina, is also pregnant. This is not really a surprise for anybody. However, I kind of disappointed in everybody because no one likes or wants to get to know her husband. Why you ask? He’s black! I have no problem with interracial marriages, but it seems my family is very predigious! But I doubt I can change them. Who doesn’t have family members like that?

There has to something in the water here! Should I be worried? Maybe I should since a friend of mine (wink, wink…..you know who you are) said I’m sliding into being a redneck! The accent, where I live, even wearing baseball caps constitutes being a redneck.

Hmmmmm…..sinner or saint? Which is better?