Home prices are dropping nationwide.

Locally, home values have already declined 15-30%, depending on neighborhood. Because this area has been slower than many to deflate, and because the run-up has been so high, especially in the past five years, the area still has a ways to go down, ioho.

According to a survey by real estate site Zillow.com about three-quarters of U.S. homes lost value in the past year.

But perceptions are another story. Nationwide, about half of U.S. homeowners say their home's value has either increased or remained the same over the past year.

But for the first time, a tiny majority -- 51% of homeowners-- said their home had declined in value in the past 12 months. Of the rest, 32% think their home increased in value in the past 12 months, while 17% said they believe their value remained the same. This survey was taken in the first week of October.

Hmmmm. What's the percentage of owners in the Charlottesville Area who think their home's value is unchanged or has actually risen?

We can't answer that. But we're going to go ahead and assert that most homeowners who are selling believe that the value of their house has increased.

And we're going to go ahead and assert that all Seller's Agents in this area think that their client's house values have risen even though the bubble here has been deflating steadily since 2006.

That is, Seller's Agents believe this until the house doesn't sell. Currently, there's nearly 15 months of inventory.

Note to Buyers:

Seller's Agents are still showing their clients "Comps" -- comparable sold properties -- from 2007 and 2008 as a way to price their properties.

And Buyer's Agents are showing their clients "sold comps" from the past year as a way to come up with an offer on a property.

But what do these "comps" really mean? Do they mean the same thing they meant just last summer?

We doubt it. Unless you're seeing a "comp" from a house sold in the past seven weeks, you're likely to pay too much as a buyer right now.

We've pointed out that it's a buyer's market. However, the entire financial landscape has changed--and keeps changing, almost on a daily basis. This includes the Charlottesville / Albemarle area, which is not "protected" or "insulated" from the rest of the world, which is in a recession.

And if an agent tells you differently? Tells you that this market will maintain its "value?" Ask to see their crystal ball. Experts and prognosticators have a different forecast.


The latest way the US financial landscape is changing is that existing bad mortgages--those in default or foreclosure, those that are "underwater,"--are going to be rewritten and guaranteed by Treasury and the FDIC in cooperation with major lenders.

Once these programs get going, property values will take a while to find their bottom, ioho. There will be more "reassessing" of properties whose homeowners are underwater but not likely to default, due to taxpayer outcry.

But you know us. We're always discussing declining local values and national trends. So how about some local input about what is already actually happening?

To read about one assessment company's experience with local declining home values, see "An Apples to Apples Look at House Deflation." It's by Michael Martin, one of the loan officers at Crown Mortgage Services who, along with Jason Crigler, writes The Mortgage Buzz. The post discusses Absolute Appraisals, which does business in the Charlottesville and Richmond areas and surrounding counties.

Some excerpts:

Absolute Appraisal's "...experience in this market gives a clear picture of what is happening in our area with declining real estate values....[there has been] a 15-30% decline in housing values."

"...the most heavily declining areas are where there is excess supply. These days, that is in condos and in new construction neighborhoods. Builders who have gotten in over their heads have been dumping their excess inventory to the detriment of their previous customers.

Older neighborhoods have seen less decline.

Not only has this deflation led to less loan activity...it lead[s] to the uglier side of this bubble bust – foreclosures."

The entire post is available here.

From the Federal Election Commission last year:

The Federal Election Commission (FEC/Commission) announced today that Mitchell Wade and MZM, Inc. will pay a $1,000,000 civil penalty, the second largest penalty ever paid in the 32-year history of the FEC.  The FEC has accepted a conciliation agreement in which Mr. Wade admits to knowingly and willfully violating the Federal Election Campaign Act (the Act) by funneling $78,000 in corporate contributions to two federal candidates.  The Commission unanimously approved the conciliation agreement.

FEC Chairman Robert Lenhard stated: "There are serious consequences for those who knowingly and willfully try to funnel illegal contributions into federal election campaigns.  The historic civil penalty collected in this case shows that the FEC has a strong and vigorous enforcement program in place."

This penalty brings the total civil penalties assessed by the FEC in 2007 to more than $4.7 million, which is the second largest amount ever collected in a single year in the Commission's history.  The Commission collected $6.2 million in all of 2006.

Facts of the Case

MZM (now known as True Norte, Inc.) is a corporation and a government contractor.  At the time the violations of the Act occurred, Mitchell Wade was the principal owner and Chief Executive Officer of MZM.  Richard Berglund was employed by MZM as a manager of an office of MZM located in Martinsville, Virginia.

Mr. Wade used MZM corporate funds to reimburse employees and their spouses for contributions to the campaign committees of Representatives Virgil Goode and Katherine Harris.  Richard Berglund assisted in the scheme by receiving cash from Wade from which Berglund made a contribution under his and his wife's name and then distributed the remaining cash to other employees of MZM, and in some cases their spouses, to make contributions.  In total, Mitchell Wade and MZM reimbursed, directly and indirectly, $78,000 in contributions to two federal candidates.

On February 24, 2006, Mitchell Wade pleaded guilty to multiple felony counts, including one count of election fraud by unlawfully making campaign contributions in the name of another.  On July 23, 2006, Richard Berglund pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor violation by unlawfully making contributions in the name of another.

Respondents disclosed the violations of the Act to the U.S. Department of Justice and have cooperated with the Commission in resolving this matter.  Mitchell Wade and MZM have also taken responsibility for the liability of the former employees of MZM and their spouses who acted as conduits for the reimbursed contributions.  The Commission has determined to take no further action with respect to those conduits.  In addition to the $1,000,000 civil penalty to be paid by Mr. Wade and MZM Inc., Richard Berglund has agreed to pay a civil penalty of $42,000.

The Commission found no evidence that either Goode for Congress or Friends of Katherine Harris knew that the contributions were illegal, and both committees have either refunded or disgorged all MZM-related contributions.

http://www.fec.gov/press/press...

Microblogging service Twitter has been revving up its relevance as the 2008 presidential race heads toward the grand finale of election day, but its newest offering may make it the go-to spot for instantaneous reporting on Nov. 4. Twitter Vote Report has been actively recruiting Twitter-philes for the past couple of weeks to participate in its "citizen-driven reporting on how America's voting during the '08 election...creating a real-time record that can help us to help ourselves while the vote is taking place." The opportunity to immediately report line length, wait times, registration issues or machine problems will be quite empowering to anyone voting on Nov. 4. I'm also betting the mainstream media, both campaigns and election boards (if they're smart) will be actively monitoring Twitter Vote Report to gauge voter turnout, pick up on trends and troubleshoot, especially in swing states, key cities and even vital precincts. If you're not a Twitter user, you can still participate by text message, phone or an iPhone application. If you are a Twitter-phile (I admit, I'm addicted - follow me at @MistieT or my colleagues @SusanIsk and @Marijean), jump in by following Twitter name votereport. To send in relevant Tweets, include #votereport in your messages, and enjoy taking citizen journalism to a whole new level on Nov. 4.

Microblogging service Twitter has been revving up its relevance as the 2008 presidential race heads toward the grand finale of election day, but its newest offering may make it the go-to spot for instantaneous reporting on Nov. 4. Twitter Vote Report has been actively recruiting Twitter-philes for the past couple of weeks to participate in its "citizen-driven reporting on how America's voting during the '08 election...creating a real-time record that can help us to help ourselves while the vote is taking place." The opportunity to immediately report line length, wait times, registration issues or machine problems will be quite empowering to anyone voting on Nov. 4. I'm also betting the mainstream media, both campaigns and election boards (if they're smart) will be actively monitoring Twitter Vote Report to gauge voter turnout, pick up on trends and troubleshoot, especially in swing states, key cities and even vital precincts. If you're not a Twitter user, you can still participate by text message, phone or an iPhone application. If you are a Twitter-phile (I admit, I'm addicted - follow me at @MistieT or my colleagues @SusanIsk and @Marijean), jump in by following Twitter name votereport. To send in relevant Tweets, include #votereport in your messages, and enjoy taking citizen journalism to a whole new level on Nov. 4.

Microblogging service Twitter has been revving up its relevance as the 2008 presidential race heads toward the grand finale of election day, but its newest offering may make it the go-to spot for instantaneous reporting on Nov. 4.

Twitter Vote Report has been actively recruiting Twitter-philes for the past couple of weeks to participate in its "citizen-driven reporting on how America's voting during the '08 election ... creating a real-time record that can help us to help ourselves while the vote is taking place."

The opportunity to immediately report line length, wait times, registration issues or machine problems will be quite empowering to anyone voting on Nov. 4. I'm also betting the mainstream media, both campaigns and election boards (if they're smart) will be actively monitoring Twitter Vote Report to gauge voter turnout, pick up on trends and troubleshoot, especially in swing states, key cities and even vital precincts. If you're not a Twitter user, you can still participate by text message, phone or an iPhone application. If you are a Twitter-phile (I admit, I'm addicted - follow me at @MistieT or my colleagues @SusanIsk and @Marijean), jump in by following Twitter name votereport. To send in relevant Tweets, include #votereport in your messages, and enjoy taking citizen journalism to a whole new level on Nov. 4.

Microblogging service Twitter has been revving up its relevance as the 2008 presidential race heads toward the grand finale of election day, but its newest offering may make it the go-to spot for instantaneous reporting on Nov. 4. Twitter Vote Report has been actively recruiting Twitter-philes for the past couple of weeks to participate in its "citizen-driven reporting on how America's voting during the '08 election ... creating a real-time record that can help us to help ourselves while the vote is taking place." The opportunity to immediately report line length, wait times, registration issues or machine problems will be quite empowering to anyone voting on Nov. 4. I'm also betting the mainstream media, both campaigns and election boards (if they're smart) will be actively monitoring Twitter Vote Report to gauge voter turnout, pick up on trends and troubleshoot, especially in swing states, key cities and even vital precincts. If you're not a Twitter user, you can still participate by text message, phone or an iPhone application. If you are a Twitter-phile (I admit, I'm addicted - follow me at @MistieT or my colleagues @SusanIsk and @Marijean), jump in by following Twitter name votereport. To send in relevant Tweets, include #votereport in your messages, and enjoy taking citizen journalism to a whole new level on Nov. 4.

In 1960, Lyndon and Lady Bird Johnson took a whistle stop train tour on behalf of Kennedy-Johnson ticket through a number of small towns, including my family's hometown of Culpeper, Virginia. I have always remembered Lyndon Johnson's words as he left Culpeper in the dust -- "What has Richard Nixon ever done for Culpeper?" It amused Culpeper citizens and my family at the time and it still makes me chuckle today. I thought of that campaign fondly as I read Liz Carpenter's piece about a later campaign by the Johnsons. I hope you enjoy it. . . . Womanpolitico -- Kay Slaughter




06:11 PM CDT on Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Liz Carpenter was press secretary to Lady Bird Johnson from 1963 to 1969 and is a best-selling author. Jim Comer is a speaker and the author of "When Roles Reverse: A Guide to Parenting Your Parents."

Forty-four years ago this month, I boarded a train at Washington's Union Station with Lady Bird Johnson for a 1,682-mile whistle stop campaign. We stopped 47 times, in towns large and small. Along the way, Lady Bird faced down hecklers, spoke to hundreds of thousands of voters and made history. Just three months earlier, President Johnson had signed the Civil Rights Bill of 1964, which ended discrimination in public accommodations. For the first time, African-Americans had full access to restaurants, hotels, theaters and public transportation. Many Southerners were furious with the president.

But we couldn't write off the South in the election, and, with her blend of gentility and grit, Lady Bird was the perfect surrogate. As I planned her schedule, she told me, "Don't give me the easy towns, Liz. Let me take the tough ones."

While her charm came through, she did not mince words. In a Southern accent that she shared with her audiences, she said, "The hard duty of assuring equal constitutional rights to all Americans falls, not only on the president but on all who love this land. I am sure we will rise to that duty. We are a nation of laws, not men, and our greatness is our ability to adjust to the national consensus."

Those words were powerful but not popular. We faced hecklers at some stops, crude signs at others, and even death threats. Our roughest moments came in Charleston, S.C., where the hecklers would not stop, and neither would Lady Bird. Her courageous words got through, overwhelming the messengers of hate.

More than four decades have passed. I turned 88 a few days after the Democratic Party nominated an African-American as its candidate for president.

Much credit goes to President Johnson who persuaded senators to pass a tough civil rights bill after a hundred years of filibuster and delay. Barack Obama's nomination would not have been possible without presidential leadership and the work of thousands of unsung heroes, some who gave their lives to ensure "equal justice under the law."

Although I was an enthusiastic Hillary Clinton supporter in the primaries and feel she would make a great president, I believe her spirited contest with Mr. Obama strengthened each of them. For the last four months of the campaign, the two major candidates agreed on 90 percent of the issues.

While I look forward to the day we have a woman in the Oval Office, I'm happy to endorse Barack Obama. He is right on the issues, smart and unafraid to surround himself with people who challenge his views.

Hillary has made scores of speeches supporting Mr. Obama. If she can get over her loss, so can we. Any Democrat who considers supporting John McCain must count the cost of such a vote: Four more years of Bush policies, the continuation of the war in Iraq, expanded tax cuts for the rich, no progress in health care reform, right-wing Supreme Court justices and a vice president who is profoundly unprepared to be president. Sarah Palin is against everything the women's movement stands for: She may be female in gender, but she's a good old boy at heart.

As I cast my ballot, I'll be remembering 1964 and the Lady Bird Special slowly winding its way through the South. I'll hear the cheers and the hecklers. I'll recall the soft-spoken courage of Lady Bird, who went into her beloved South and campaigned for long-overdue change.

And I'll picture a 3-year-old named Barack Obama who grew up, believing that he, too, had a chance to become president.


Liz Carpenter was press secretary to Lady Bird Johnson from 1963 to 1969 and is a best-selling author. Jim Comer is a speaker and the author of "When Roles Reverse: A Guide to Parenting Your Parents

Microblogging service Twitter has been revving up its relevance as the 2008 presidential race heads toward the grand finale of election day, but its newest offering may make it the go-to spot for instantaneous reporting on Nov. 4. Twitter Vote Report has been actively recruiting Twitter-philes for the past couple of weeks to participate in its "citizen-driven reporting on how America's voting during the '08 election...creating a real-time record that can help us to help ourselves while the vote is taking place." The opportunity to immediately report line length, wait times, registration issues or machine problems will be quite empowering to anyone voting on Nov. 4. I'm also betting the mainstream media, both campaigns and election boards (if they're smart) will be actively monitoring Twitter Vote Report to gauge voter turnout, pick up on trends and troubleshoot, especially in swing states, key cities and even vital precincts. If you're not a Twitter user, you can still participate by text message, phone or an iPhone application. If you are a Twitter-phile (I admit, I'm addicted - follow me at @MistieT or my colleagues @SusanIsk and @Marijean), jump in by following Twitter name votereport. To send in relevant Tweets, include #votereport in your messages, and enjoy taking citizen journalism to a whole new level on Nov. 4.

It’s not a secret that I have disagreed with Mr. Virgil Goode’s representation of my US Congressional district (see references later), so I am very glad to see that others share my support for Tom Perriello, a sensible, enthusiastic, and considerate candidate for the 5th district in Virginia. Mr. Goode has a history of intolerance, [...]

We've just returned from the trick-or-treat event on The Lawn. The crowd seemed much larger than in past years, which might be due to the beautiful weather today (it's about 65 degrees out).

Have a happy Halloween and a great weekend, everyone!

Interview with David Rose, of the New York Angels. (about a minute) David Winer (above, left) braves the Angel of Death, who made an appearance in honor of Halloween.

On this day 491 years ago Martin Luther posted his 95 thesis as a challenge to the excesses of his day and opened the doors to mass schism. He could have been a renown reformer in the church, but the legacy today is nearly 30,000 protestant denominations.

I used to think of it as a bold and appropriate move but increasingly I see the protestant revolution in problematic terms. As I research more tenants of early Christianity they increasingly mirror the tradition and ethos of modern Catholicism.